Given the recent market volatility, I wanted to share an excellent article with you. This is an insightful article on the current state of the markets, written by Vance Howard, Founder and CEO of Howard Capital Management. Vance is one of the financial voices I respect most deeply, especially when it comes to navigating market trends with wisdom and clarity. His years of experience and data-driven approach offer a steady hand in times of economic uncertainty. I highly encourage you to take a few moments to read his perspective—it may help you view today’s financial landscape through a more informed and confident lens.
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Markets Rising, Tariffs Coming – Don’t Let Fear Keep You Out!
The S&P 500 is hitting an all-time high, which is one of the most bullish events for the stock market. I have been reading and hearing a lot about how some people are saying new highs are a bad thing, to be careful, and that new highs are unsustainable. This is crazy! New highs are what every investor should want. If the S&P 500 is going to double in value, it must make new highs the whole way up. The S&P 500 is currently at 6350, and for it to hit 12700, which it will someday, it will have to hit new highs the whole way up, so I say “Hip, Hip Hooray for new highs.”
We’re in the early stages of 2Q earnings season. So far, 12% of companies have reported, with 86% beating expectations by an average surprise of 7.8%, suggesting a potentially double-digit EPS growth quarter.
The Treasury just posted a number that turned heads. In June 2025, the federal government collected $26.6 billion in tariff revenue. That’s up from $22.2 billion in May and more than quadruple the $6.3 billion recorded in June 2024. The spike helped deliver a $27 billion budget surplus for the month, the first surplus since 2017. The fiscal year-to-date deficit still sits at $1.34 trillion, but the June print shows what happens when trade policy turns into a revenue engine. There were three new trade deals this week, as agreements were made with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Existing home sales declined 2.7% in June, down in three of the past four months, to a below-consensus 3.93 million unit annual rate, the lowest level in nine months. Although still within their three-year range, sales are lower than during the pandemic shutdown and are tracking near the lowest level since 2010.
The latest decline was led by a 3.0% drop in single-family sales, while condo/co-ops were flat. Three of the four regions posted declines, with only sales in the West region up slightly. The crux of the problem remains weak affordability, amid continued elevated mortgage rates and high home prices. For the love of Pete, drop rates.
Home prices are being supported by tight housing inventory, as homeowners who’ve locked in lower mortgage rates prior to the rate spike in 2022 don’t see a financial incentive to sell in the current market. New housing construction is also weak.
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As always, we are here to help you steward your resources faithfully and make decisions aligned with your values and goals.
Yours for Faithful Stewardship,
Jeff Rogers, CEP®, CKA®
Founder & Chairman
